I was taken by the quick response of UK security yesterday when a security alarm was set off by an acrid cloud of smoke in downtown London. UK and London security forces cordoned off several streets. Suspecting a chemical attack of some kind, chemical detox units were set up and ready to go

As it turns out, a Thai chef had been cooking his special extra-hot dip. He had no idea that this commotion was being caused by his intentionally scorched chili. Later, when he found out what happened, he was pretty confused. “I was making a spicy dip with extra-hot chilies that are deliberately burnt. To us it smells like burnt chili.”

At least three alarms have gone off in the mortgage business. Underestimating risk was the first alarm. The market was over-exuberant. The second alarm was mortgage company failure. For me this alarm was loudest. Many who were involved with sub-prime and unconventional loan types are now without jobs. Serious losses are on the books. The third alarm has been declining home prices. Oklahoma has been unscathed but many parts of the country have seen declines.

Meanwhile marketing executives are cooking up new offers for homeowners and homeowners to-be. Are we under threat of catastrophe? Shall we call for the undertaker?  Or have we just burned the sauce and need to start a new dish?

I had these thoughts while reading Lisa’s account of Google’s Jaiku purchase.    

1. If your first thought is, “what’s a Jaiku?” then congratulations, you have a life that doesn’t require knowledge of the latest tech fad. 
2. Lisa referred to Jaiku and Twitter as “life streaming” platforms.  Didn’t sound like she coined it, but that’s a pretty apt description of both.
3. Why on earth would someone want to stream their life?
4. She compares Jaiku to Twitter and Orkut to Facebook.  I couldn’t help but think again just how important names are.  Isn’t it obvious which of those services will have a better chance of success based on the names alone?

Today Mark Simon of Did-it raised another bubble alarm in his post “Is The Online Ad Industry Partying Like It’s 1999?”

Unlike stock analyst Henry Blodget, Mark is a search industry insider who is highly respected within the online marketing industry.  So, when he rang the bubble alarm it certainly raised my eyebrows.

On a few of Mark’s points, I couldn’t agree more, namely:

• No Google product outside of search has produced meaningful revenue.  I would add that some products (e.g. YouTube) have also produced meaningful cost in server load and significant legal risk.
• The expectations placed on Google by the public markets may be unreasonable.  They’ve yet to have their “gut check” period where many things start to go badly at once. 

Here’s where I respectfully disagree with Mark.  He writes of a doomsday scenario where:

“The result is panic selling of Google, which casts a pall over the entire online ad business, restoring some measure of rationality to stock valuations. Keyword prices crash, as marketers, responding to a new wave of investigative articles about the effectiveness of search advertising, reign in their budgets.” (emphasis mine)

That’s where Mark loses me.  And here’s why.  Lately I’ve been making 2 points to anybody who will listen:

1. Search is extremely valuable for direct marketers, in fact it is far more valuable than any other channel they have, offline or on.
2. This time, unlike in 1999, big advertisers with huge budgets understand that.

So when I write that social media will be tough to monetize or that the search marketing is the last piece of budget advertisers will cut that’s where the issues tie together. 

If you have a web 2.0 start-up with a crazy name, no revenue model, and are just hoping to bought out, I think it may be time to start worrying. 

But search CPCs aren’t coming down anytime soon.

“I wrote this song two hours before we met.
I didn’t know your name or what you looked like yet.
Oh, I could have stayed at home and gone to bed.
I could have gone to see a film instead.
You might have changed your mind and seen your friends.
Life could have been very different but then,
something changed.”  - Pulp, “Something Changed”

Between Outlook and various web apps, almost my entire life is online now.  But, luckily I still occasionally jot things down on good old-fashioned paper.  Why is that lucky?  Because sometimes I find that paper years later and it brings a smile to my face.

Case in point:  My wife just found the paper where we jotted down potential names for our twins. 

It looks like this:

Kate
Bridget
Shanon
Erin
Piper
Amanda
Anna
Christine
Kira (sp) Kiera
Lillian
Gillian
Marion
Maxine
Pearl
Sage
Silvia
Mark
Peter
Katherine Anne
Mark Edward
Peter James
Shannon Jane

I have no idea why some are crossed out, maybe those are the ones that we didn’t agree on.  It’s just crazy to think of our kids with any names except the ones they now have.  Their names are now who they are and it’s hard to imagine calling them anything else.

I think there’s an interesting business issue here, too. Sometimes we make decisions, like naming a company or product or choosing a domain name that will have a lasting impact.  Your name is likely to be the first thing that potential business partners and customers will ever encounter.  Does it project the right image?  Will it still work in 5 or even 10 years? 

I always enjoy looking at a list of recent start-ups to see how well they’ve thought this through.

Photo credit: mrlemonjelly

Andy Beal at Marketing Pilgrim recently announced a contest – write about why you read Marketing Pilgrim and you will be entered to win $500.  I thought I would take that as an opportunity to write about the other blogs I read and why.  If our number comes up in for the $500, it will be donated to the March of Dimes (someday I’ll write about why I love that charity so much).

First, here’s why I spend a few hours a week reading blogs:

Information gathering.  I probably wouldn’t know about the Techcrunch 40, Blogrush, Google Gadgets, or Google’s presentation software without my daily dose from the blogs I read.  I certainly wouldn’t see those items in the local newspaper or in the Economist.

Commentary. Bloggers aren’t journalists (most aren’t anyway) and I like that. I like to get a dose of commentary with my news, both from the original poster and from their readers. The instant give-and-take makes it far more interesting to me than just reading a wire service article. 

Community.  I see a lot of the bloggers at industry conferences, on Facebook and in other forums. I also like to participate in the comments.  On many sites, a real sense of community is developed in the comments.

What blogs are my favorites?

• 10e20 - The Winfields write intelligently about search, social marketing and Photoshop.
• Andy Beal’s Marketing Pilgrim - Andy’s site does a great job of keeping me up with technology news along with the “why.” In fact, last week I received an email from one of our advertisers citing one of the Pilgrim’s posts.
• AVC - A VC (get it?), Fred Wilson, writes passionately about technology and music.
• Bruce Clay, Inc - Written with spunk and flair, BCI’s “the Lisa” talks about all things SEO.
• Feld Thoughts - Brad Feld is a VC with Mobius Venture Capital.  I have a strong affinity for Mobius because they backed the first company I co-founded, eCoverage, but Brad’s also a great thinker and writer on technology.
• Graywolf’s SEO Blog - Michael Gray gets the details of search and social media like nobody else. Often scathing, often hilarious.
• Search Engine Journal - Loren Baker has put together a go-to site where you can follow the latest news on search engines.  And, he lets me guest write for SEJ!
• Search Engine Roundtable - If you don’t have time to follow the world of online marketing forums, SER is great because they take the time to follow them and they share the important threads with all of us.
• SEOmoz - SEOmoz is a Seattle-based company that likes to share it’s search knowledge.  An amazingly open company and a wonderful community of readers add to the discussion.
• Shoemoney - Jeremy Schoemaker’s blog is about how to make money online.  While there are 1000 blogs about making money online, Jeremy has had actual success as an arbitrager and is quite open about his techniques.
• Silicon Alley Insider- Henry Blodget is my favorite target on the impact of the mortgage crisis but I still enjoy his writing.  One negative note is that this blog has a lot of posts per day.
• techipedia - Tamar Weinberg is one of the leading practitioners in social media and write candidly about her likes and dislikes in the space.

Finally, a note about how I read blogs. I read everything via RSS in Google Reader. It’s not perfect, but it’s a very solid tool and gives me a way to quickly skim my favorite sites to see what’s new in my world.  If you’re reading this on our website, I highly recommend that you try Google Reader for a week just to see if you like it.

If you’re like me and you loved Buffy, that’s a huge statement, I know.

But Reaper is very, very good.   The premise is that a young man finds out on his 21st birthday that his parents sold his soul to the devil before he was born.  Like Buffy, the show plays it straight.  In Buffy, Sunnydale really was overrun with vampires and Buffy’s destiny was to slay them.  In Reaper, the kid really does have to work for the Devil.

Here are the facts:

1. It’s on “the CW.”  Maybe you’ve never heard of the CW?  It’s the combination of the old UPN and WB networks.  It’s a terrible name that makes you think “country western.”  That’s not my fault.
2. Reaper combines drama and comedy like no shows except Buffy and Twin Peaks.  It doesn’t try to be overly zany or “offbeat” like Desperate Housewives or Ally McBeal.  In fact, I insult Buffy, Twin Peaks and Reaper by putting them in back-to-back sentences with those other 2 shows.
3. It’s produced by ABC Studios.  Why on earth are they not playing it on ABC?  Because it doesn’t fit some profile of what a network show is supposed to be? Because it’s not a cop drama or a 30 minute laugh-track infested sitcom?  I can only wonder.

Do yourself a huge favor and put this one on your to-do list right now.

SureHits Says: straight A (no plus because LOST and Heroes exist).

The light posting lately was due to a trip out to Northern California.  It was a fantastic trip.  Karla and I were even able to spend a few days without the kids for the first time in 3 years!   We headed up to Sonoma County wine country for a friend’s wedding at the Trentadue Winery.

We had a great time, capped by an odd experience on Friday night.  After my friend’s rehearsal dinner at the Bear Republic brewpub in Healdsburg, we left with a group of people to find another spot for a few drinks. We decided to stop at a bar/restaurant called barndiva (first little clue this would be an experience: they spell it in all lower-case) as someone in the group had heard good things about their fancy drinks. 

Here is a quote from barndiva’s website :

“barndiva is a celebration of all things artisanal” 

Then this:

“Like our menu, we want people to come to barndiva for new drink experiences, so the impetus for a new cocktail usually starts with a desire to bring out subtle elements in a primary spirit” (emphasis mine)

Now, had we seen that first we would have known better.  Why isn’t content this useful ubiquitous and mobile yet? 

So, we walked into the bar area and had a conversation with one of their employees (waiter / maître d’ , hard to know) that went something like this:

Employee: we are not that kind of bar

My friend:  what? 

Employee: how many people do you have here?

My friend: I don’t know, maybe 10-15

The employee then led us outside and let us know that we weren’t to pull any tables together (even though we were the only ones out there) and that 1 heat lamp (though there were at least 6 unused) would be plenty.

Surprisingly it actually took 2-3 more rude comments before we left.  If they really didn’t want us to buy any $10 cocktails, then we didn’t want to put them out.

Of course, we left and found a great spot where we walked in, were greeted warmly, ordered drinks and had a great time.  Plus, it was nice to have something to joke about all weekend with a group of people we had just met.

And how exactly does this relate to Internet marketing?

One of my favorite sayings is that web users are fickle.  I think I’ve said it about 1000 times over the time I’ve been doing this.  The same person who would wait for 5 rude comments before leaving a snobby bar will leave your site in about 10 seconds.  The same person who will listen for 10 minutes to a telesales person before hanging up will will also leave your site in just a few short moments. 

Unlike the world outside the web, there’s nothing physical (like having to find another bar) or social (hanging up on someone) to stop your users from leaving.  The next site is but a click away.

So you have to be more than just “not rude” when it comes to every aspect of your site.  You have to be downright welcoming.  Figure out why your users are at your site (hint: this can usually be found from referring information or your tracking URL) and give them what they want.  Make it easy, make it pretty, but more than anything else, make it quick.  As soon as the phone rings, the baby cries, Facebook beckons or the doorbell chimes, your users are gone. 

And they may never come back.

The Heroes season premiere was on this past Monday.  It was fantastic, as you might expect if you watched last season. 

One thing caught my attention:  At one point, Hiro Nakamura calls his hero, Takezo Kensei, a gaijin.  From what I understand, that means something close to “foreign devil.”  Why did I note that?

Back in April, while I was in New York for the SES conference, my friend took me to a great little Japanese restaurant.  We sat down, got a few beers and he ordered for us.  Side note: I hate ordering at restaurants and I will eat anything, so my ideal restaurant is one where they just bring you things they think you will like.

Here’s how my friend’s conversation with the waitress went: 

     Friend: We’ll have one of these (pointing to the menu)

     Waitress: No, I don’t think you want that (say what!?!)

     Friend:  The gaijin (me) will eat anything!

     Other diners around us:  Laughing out loud.

     Waitress: OK (looking distressed).

A few minutes later, the waitress delivered our food.  What was this mystery item?  Seaweed in vinegar. 

Now, vinegar is one of the few things that I really, truly dislike.  And this wasn’t your garden-variety approachable seaweed.  It was fermented, gooey and dripping.  Anyway, with that kind of build-up what was I going to do?  Luckily I still had plenty of beer left.   With my Kirin Ichiban chaser, I finished the seaweed and moved on to a fantastic meal.

This reminds me of what I’ve seen happen so many times on the web.  In designing sites and landing pages we’re tempted to give users hundreds of choices.  We’re tempted to “leave it up to the user” to decide what they want to do.  But, that’s not right at all.  If you don’t want people to choose the seaweed, don’t offer the seaweed.  When it comes to your website, you’re the host.  Be a good one.

I’m in Palo Alto this week.  Monday I went to workout at Stanford’s Arrillaga Center for Sports & Recreation (a/k/a the student gym).  It was Monday at 3:30 pm.  Somehow I forgot that this gym has a very different busy time than most other gyms I visit.  At most gyms, where the patrons have jobs, the busy time doesn’t come until after people get off work.  At the Stanford gym, 3:30 was just long enough after the last classes get out to pack the place.  Honestly, I’ve never seen more people per inch at a gym in my life.

Yesterday, I ended up going at about the same time.  I wanted to go earlier, but I have a job after all and I’m not fully on vacation this week.  But, the gym was only about half as busy. 

What gives?

All gyms have roughly the same cycle.  They have a daily cycle, where they see almost all their visitors before and after work.  They have a weekly cycle, which peaks on Monday and usually dwindles the rest of the week.  They also have a yearly cycle.  New Year’s resolutions make the first week of January the busiest time of the year.

What’s interesting is that almost everything that consumers buy online has daily, weekly and yearly cycles.  This makes intuitive sense.  Don’t you think that people who shop for insurance at midnight on Saturday are different in some way than those that are shopping on Tuesday at noon?  Of course they are.

Dayparting in search marketing means bidding differently by time of day and day of week.  You measure the differences in conversion rate from click to conversation throughout the week and then you act on this data by bidding differently throughout the day and week to reflect these differences in value.

When I was presenting at the SES San Jose conference, I asked for a show of hands: how many of the audience were using dayparting?  Even though it was billed as an advanced session, I was still surprised that more than half of the audience raised their hands. 

The lesson here is clear:  if you don’t know when your site visitors are most likely to convert and if you are not acting on that information, you’re behind the game.  Get on it!

I’ve been posting every so often for Loren on Search Engine Journal.

Yesterday I posted about the dominance of Wikipedia.  If you don’t want to read the whole article, here are the ways you can increase the chances that someone will link to your site:

1. Keep your URLs short so they are easy to copy and paste.
2. Avoid using numbers or parameters in your URLs.  It makes people suspicious that they are affiliate links.
3. Keep garbage (like flashy ads, too many pop-ups, too much AdSense etc.) off of your site.

 Previous posts on SEJ:

• Digg, Facebook, and YouTube: Show Us the Money, detailing why social media impressions aren’t worth nearly as much as search (or SureHits!) impressions.
• Sub-prime Mortgage Woes Mean Lower CPCs? Don’t Bet On It.  I think the title pretty much says it all.